Chances of Market Closing

Study

  • SPY
  • 2005 to present
  • Open and closing prices
  • Computed the conditional probability matrix for probability of closing up/down given a day where we open up/down.

Basically, there is higher chance that market will continue in the direction of the previous day.

Full video here

Portfolio Allocation and Position Sizing (Small Accounts too)

Also heard Sosnoff say:

  • For small accounts (< $25,000), will be using 70% BPR allocation most of the time.
  • For small accounts, can allocate 5-15% or even up to 20% for undefined risk trades.
  • For small accounts, can allocate 1-3% or even up to 5% for defined risk trades.
  • VIX spends most of its life between 15-20.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_recaps/2019-10-30/episodes/appropriate-allocations-10-30-2019

Portfolio Management and Position Sizing

We should risk more during periods of high volatility. Use more capital to trade when VIX is higher.

Out of the BP allocation, 75% should be allocated for undefined risk strategies and 25% for defined risk strategies. It was also mentioned that this is the ideal stage when we have sufficient capital. For smaller accounts, we may have to do 75% defined risk strategies instead.

Full video here