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Tag: Probability

Estimated Probabilities

November 19, 2019December 28, 2019 ~ nightrunpapa ~ Leave a comment

Heard Sosnoff say:

Chances of price closing at strike price at expiration = delta

Chances of price touching strike price = 2 x delta

Full video here

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Assignment (1)
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Manage at 21 DTE (5)
Manage at 2x Credit (2)
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Open at 20 to 30 deltas (1)
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- Ratio Spread (5)
- Strangle (23)
Trade Adjustment (10)
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Uncategorized (5)

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>$1 Wing WIdth 1/3 Width of the Strike 1SD Strangles 2SD Strangle 5% Move Over 2 Weeks 16-Delta Strangle 30 Delta Strangle 30 percent strangles 45% Width of the Strike AAPL AMZN BP expansion BPR buy and hold BWB Calendar Spread capital allocation Chicken Iron Condor Credit Spread Debit Spread Defined vs Undefined Risk DIA Diversification Dynamic Iron Condor EBAY EEM ETF EWW EWZ Fading the market FXE FXI FXY GDX GLD GOOG Inverted Strangle Iron Condor IV Rank less than 50% IV Rank over 50% IWM Jade Lizard JPM managed at 2x credit Managed at 10% managed at 21 DTE managed at 50% More Than $1 Strangles MSFT Naked Call Naked Put NDX Open at 45 DTE options are better Portfolio Management Position Sizing Probability Ratio Spread RUT SBUX SPX SPY Static Iron Condor Strangle T TLT Trade Adjustment Trading Math USO VIX watchlist wider iron condor XLE XOM YHOO

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